{"id":875,"date":"2026-02-15T20:34:42","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T11:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/?p=875"},"modified":"2026-02-15T20:34:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T11:34:44","slug":"chap19-%ec%9c%84%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%81-%eb%8f%99%ec%a0%81-%eb%aa%a8%eb%8d%b8hierarchical-dynamic-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/?p=875","title":{"rendered":"Chap19. \uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ub378(Hierarchical Dynamic Models)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uc624\ub298\uc740 <strong>\uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615(Hierarchical Dynamic Models)<\/strong>\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \u201c\ud559\uad50 \ud604\uc7a5\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\u201d\ub97c \uc608\uc2dc\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc9c1\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uc124\uba85\uacfc \uc218\ub9ac\uc801 \uc5c4\ubc00\ud568\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450 \uac16\ucd98 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc7ac\uad6c\uc131\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ubd84\uc11d \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c\ub294 <strong>jamovi<\/strong>\uc758 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ubc95(GAMLj \ubaa8\ub4c8 \ud65c\uc6a9)\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub418, jamovi\uc758 \uae30\ubc18\uc774 \ub418\ub294 <strong>R<\/strong> \ucf54\ub4dc\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc0dd\uc131\ubd80\ud130 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548(Bayesian) \uc811\uadfc\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc815\uad50\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d, \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uac8c \uad6c\ud604\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \uc11c\ub860: \uc0ac\uc9c4\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc601\ud654\ub97c \ucc0d\uc790!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-38\">\uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \ud559\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c \ud559\uc0dd\ub4e4\uc758 \uc131\ucde8\ub3c4\ub97c \uc5f0\uad6c\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0c1\uc0c1\ud574 \ubd05\uc2dc\ub2e4. \ubcf4\ud1b5\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc2dc\ud5d8\uc744 \ubcf4\uace0, &#8220;A \ud559\uad50\uac00 B \ud559\uad50\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc810\uc218\uac00 \ub192\ub2e4&#8221;\uac70\ub098 &#8220;\uc0ac\uad50\uc721\uc774 \uc131\uc801\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4&#8221;\ub77c\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc740 \ub9c8\uce58 <strong>&#8216;\uc0ac\uc9c4(Snapshot)&#8217;<\/strong>\uc744 \ucc0d\ub294 \uac83\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud604\uc2e4\uc740 \ud6e8\uc52c \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\uc704\uacc4\uc131 (Hierarchy):<\/strong> \ud559\uc0dd\ub4e4\uc740 &#8216;\ud559\uad50&#8217;\ub77c\ub294 \uadf8\ub8f9\uc5d0 \uc18d\ud574 \uc788\uc5b4 \uac19\uc740 \ud559\uad50 \uce5c\uad6c\ub4e4\ub07c\ub9ac\ub294 \ube44\uc2b7\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\uc5ed\ub3d9\uc131 (Dynamics):<\/strong> \ud559\uad50\uc758 \uc5ec\uac74(\uc120\uc0dd\ub2d8\uc758 \uc5f4\uc815, \ud559\uad50\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc0c1\ud0dc \ub4f1)\uc740 \uace0\uc815\ub41c \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ub9e4\ub144 \ubcc0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-41\"><strong>\uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615(HDM)<\/strong>\uc740 \uc774 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0\ub97c \ud569\uce5c \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud559\uc0dd \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ud68c\uadc0\ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ud558\ub418, \uadf8 \ud68c\uadc0\uacc4\uc218(Intercept, Slope)\uac00 \ud559\uad50\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub2e4\ub974\uace0, \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 <strong>\uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubcc0\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d(Time-varying)<\/strong> \ud5c8\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ud615\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc0ac\uc9c4\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc <strong>&#8216;\uc601\ud654(Movie)&#8217;<\/strong>\ucc98\ub7fc \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uc8e0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \uac00\uc0c1\uc758 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624: &#8220;\uacbd\uae30 \ubbf8\ub798\ud615 \ud559\uad50 \uc5f0\uad6c&#8221;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\ucd08\ub4f1\ud559\uc0dd\ub3c4 \uc774\ud574\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc608\uc2dc\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>\uc5f0\uad6c \uc0c1\ud669:<\/strong> \uacbd\uae30\ub3c4 \uad50\uc721\uccad\uc5d0\uc11c <strong>&#8216;\ud559\uc0dd\uc758 \uc218\ud559 \uc131\ucde8\ub3c4&#8217;<\/strong>\uac00 <strong>&#8216;\uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5 \uc2dc\uac04&#8217;<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud5a5\uc0c1\ub418\ub294\uc9c0 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ub300\uc0c1:<\/strong> \ucd08\ub4f1\ud559\uad50 4\ud559\ub144 \ud559\uc0dd\ub4e4\uc744 6\ud559\ub144\uc774 \ub420 \ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0 3\ub144\uac04(\ucd1d 6\ud559\uae30) \ucd94\uc801 \uc870\uc0ac.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\uad6c\uc870:<\/strong> 30\uac1c\uc758 \ud559\uad50, \uac01 \ud559\uad50\ub2f9 20\uba85\uc758 \ud559\uc0dd.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud575\uc2ec \uc9c8\ubb38:<\/strong> \uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5\uc774 \uc131\uc801\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc(<math data-latex=\"\\beta\"><semantics><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ud559\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c \ub3d9\uc77c\ud560\uae4c? \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uadf8 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \ud559\uae30\uac00 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \ubcc0\ud560\uae4c?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \ubaa8\ud615\uc758 \uad6c\uc870 (\uc218\ub9ac\uc801 \uc774\ud574)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-42\">\uc81c\uacf5\ub41c \ud14d\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud558\uc5ec \uc774 \ubaa8\ud615\uc740 \ud06c\uac8c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(1) \uad00\uce21 \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd (Observation Equation) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud559\uc0dd <math data-latex=\"i\"><semantics><mi>i<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">i<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>, \ud559\uad50 <math data-latex=\"j\"><semantics><mi>j<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">j<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>, \uc2dc\uac04 <math data-latex=\"t\"><semantics><mi>t<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">t<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc218\ud559 \uc810\uc218(<math data-latex=\"y_{ijt}\"><semantics><msub><mi>y<\/mi><mrow><mi>i<\/mi><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">y_{ijt}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><math data-latex=\"y_{ijt} = \\beta_{0,jt} + \\beta_{1,jt} \\cdot (\\text{\uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5})_{ijt} + \\epsilon_{ijt}, \\quad \\epsilon_{ijt} \\sim N(0, \\sigma^2)\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>y<\/mi><mrow><mi>i<\/mi><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mn>0<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mn>1<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>\u22c5<\/mo><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mtext>\uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5<\/mtext><msub><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><mrow><mi>i<\/mi><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03f5<\/mi><mrow><mi>i<\/mi><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mspace width=\"1em\"><\/mspace><msub><mi>\u03f5<\/mi><mrow><mi>i<\/mi><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>\u223c<\/mo><mi>N<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mn>0<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msup><mi>\u03c3<\/mi><mn>2<\/mn><\/msup><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">y_{ijt} = \\beta_{0,jt} + \\beta_{1,jt} \\cdot (\\text{\uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5})_{ijt} + \\epsilon_{ijt}, \\quad \\epsilon_{ijt} \\sim N(0, \\sigma^2)<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c <math data-latex=\"\\beta_{0,jt}\"><semantics><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mn>0<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta_{0,jt}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> (\uc808\ud3b8)\uc640 <math data-latex=\"\\beta_{1,jt}\"><semantics><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mn>1<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta_{1,jt}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> (\uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5 \ud6a8\uacfc)\ub294 \ud559\uad50(<math data-latex=\"j\"><semantics><mi>j<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">j<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\uc640 \uc2dc\uac04(<math data-latex=\"t\"><semantics><mi>t<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">t<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2e4\ub985\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(2) \uad6c\uc870 \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd (Structural Equation) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud559\uad50 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130 <math data-latex=\"\\beta_{jt}\"><semantics><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta_{jt}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>\ub294 \ud559\uad50\uc758 \ud2b9\uc131(\uc608: \uad50\uc0ac\uc758 \uacbd\ub825 <math data-latex=\"X_{school}\"><semantics><msub><mi>X<\/mi><mrow><mi>s<\/mi><mi>c<\/mi><mi>h<\/mi><mi>o<\/mi><mi>o<\/mi><mi>l<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">X_{school}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><math data-latex=\"\\beta_{jt} = \\theta_t + \\gamma_t \\cdot (\\text{\uad50\uc0ac\uacbd\ub825})_{jt} + u_{jt}, \\quad u_{jt} \\sim N(0, \\Sigma_u)\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b8<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b3<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/msub><mo>\u22c5<\/mo><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mtext>\uad50\uc0ac\uacbd\ub825<\/mtext><msub><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><mrow><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>u<\/mi><mrow><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mspace width=\"1em\"><\/mspace><msub><mi>u<\/mi><mrow><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>\u223c<\/mo><mi>N<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mn>0<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mrow><mi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u03a3<\/mi><\/mrow><mi>u<\/mi><\/msub><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta_{jt} = \\theta_t + \\gamma_t \\cdot (\\text{\uad50\uc0ac\uacbd\ub825})_{jt} + u_{jt}, \\quad u_{jt} \\sim N(0, \\Sigma_u)<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(3) \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd (System Equation) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-43\">\uc774 \ubaa8\ud615\uc758 \uaf43\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\uac00 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ubcc0\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf4\ud1b5 <strong>\ub79c\ub364 \uc6cc\ud06c(Random Walk)<\/strong> \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \ub530\ub985\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><math data-latex=\"\\theta_t = \\theta_{t-1} + w_t, \\quad w_t \\sim N(0, \\Sigma_w)\"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>\u03b8<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/msub><mo>=<\/mo><msub><mi>\u03b8<\/mi><mrow><mi>t<\/mi><mo>\u2212<\/mo><mn>1<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msub><mo>+<\/mo><msub><mi>w<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/msub><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mspace width=\"1em\"><\/mspace><msub><mi>w<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/msub><mo>\u223c<\/mo><mi>N<\/mi><mo form=\"prefix\" stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mo><mn>0<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><msub><mrow><mi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u03a3<\/mi><\/mrow><mi>w<\/mi><\/msub><mo form=\"postfix\" stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mo><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\theta_t = \\theta_{t-1} + w_t, \\quad w_t \\sim N(0, \\Sigma_w)<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uc989, \uc624\ub298\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc5b4\uc81c\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc5d0 \uae30\ucd08\ud558\ub418, \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubcc0\ud654(<math data-latex=\"w_t\"><semantics><msub><mi>w<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">w_t<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\uac00 \ub354\ud574\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc0dd\uc131 \ubc0f \ubd84\uc11d (R &amp; jamovi)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-44\">\uc774\ub860\uc801\uc73c\ub85c HDM\uc740 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ucd94\ub860(Bayesian Inference)\uc744 \uc8fc\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<sup><\/sup>. jamovi\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \ubaa8\ub4c8\uc740 \ube48\ub3c4\uc8fc\uc758(Frequentist) \uae30\ubc18\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, <strong><code>GAMLj<\/code><\/strong> \ubaa8\ub4c8\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c &#8216;\uc704\uacc4\uc801 \uc131\uc7a5 \ubaa8\ud615&#8217; \ubd84\uc11d\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uba70, <strong>R<\/strong>\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \ud14d\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ub098\uc628 \uc644\ubcbd\ud55c \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615\uc744 \uad6c\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 1. R\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubaa8\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc0dd\uc131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uba3c\uc800, \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub9de\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud574 \ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>R<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0 \ub85c\ub4dc\nlibrary(MASS)\nlibrary(tidyverse)\nlibrary(lme4)\n\nset.seed(2026)\n\n# 1. \uae30\ubcf8 \uc124\uc815\nn_schools &lt;- 30      # \ud559\uad50 \uc218\nn_students &lt;- 20     # \ud559\uad50\ub2f9 \ud559\uc0dd \uc218\nn_time &lt;- 6          # 6\ud559\uae30 (\uc2dc\uac04)\ntotal_obs &lt;- n_schools * n_students * n_time\n\n# 2. \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd (\uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ud6a8\uacfc \ubcc0\ud654 \uc0dd\uc131)\n# \uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc(Slope)\uac00 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \uc870\uae08\uc529 \uc99d\uac00\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815 (\ub79c\ub364 \uc6cc\ud06c)\ntime_effect &lt;- cumsum(rnorm(n_time, mean = 0.05, sd = 0.1)) \nbase_intercept &lt;- 50 + cumsum(rnorm(n_time, mean = 1, sd = 0.5)) # \uc804\uccb4 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc810\uc218\ub3c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\n\n# 3. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud504\ub808\uc784 \uc0dd\uc131\ndata &lt;- expand.grid(\n  Time = 1:n_time,\n  Student_ID = 1:n_students,\n  School_ID = 1:n_schools\n)\n\n# 4. \ud559\uad50\ubcc4 \ud6a8\uacfc (Random Intercept &amp; Slope)\nschool_intercepts &lt;- rnorm(n_schools, 0, 5) # \ud559\uad50 \uac04 \uaca9\ucc28\nschool_slopes &lt;- rnorm(n_schools, 0, 0.5)   # \ud559\uad50\ubcc4 \ud559\uc2b5 \ud6a8\uacfc \ucc28\uc774\n\n# 5. \ud559\uc0dd \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc0dd\uc131 \ubc0f \uc810\uc218 \uacc4\uc0b0\ndata &lt;- data %>%\n  mutate(\n    # \ud559\uc0dd\ubcc4 \uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5 \uc2dc\uac04 (\uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubcc0\ud568 + \uac1c\uc778\ucc28)\n    Self_Study = abs(rnorm(total_obs, mean = 5, sd = 2)), \n    \n    # \uc2e4\uc81c \uc218\ud559 \uc810\uc218 \uc0dd\uc131 (HDM \uad6c\uc870 \ubc18\uc601)\n    # \uc810\uc218 = (\uc2dc\uac04\ubcc4\uae30\ucd08 + \ud559\uad50\ubcc4\ucc28\uc774) + (\uc2dc\uac04\ubcc4\ud6a8\uacfc + \ud559\uad50\ubcc4\ucc28\uc774)*\ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\uac04 + \uc624\ucc28\n    Math_Score = (base_intercept&#91;Time] + school_intercepts&#91;School_ID]) + \n                 (1.5 + time_effect&#91;Time] + school_slopes&#91;School_ID]) * Self_Study + \n                 rnorm(total_obs, 0, 3)\n  )\n\n# \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud655\uc778\nhead(data)\n\n# CSV\ub85c \uc800\uc7a5 (jamovi\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd88\ub7ec\uc624\uae30 \uc704\ud568)\nwrite.csv(data, \"chap19.csv\", row.names = FALSE)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-f567f906-37a2-4473-84ff-0b72aaf9158b\" href=\"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chap19.csv\">chap19<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chap19.csv\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-f567f906-37a2-4473-84ff-0b72aaf9158b\">\ub2e4\uc6b4\ub85c\ub4dc<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 2. jamovi\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d (GAMLj \ubaa8\ub4c8)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>jamovi\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 <strong>[Linear Models] &gt; [Mixed Model]<\/strong> (\ud639\uc740 GAMLj \ubaa8\ub4c8 \uc124\uce58 \ud6c4 \uc0ac\uc6a9)\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc774 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud14d\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615\uc758 \uadfc\uc0ac\uce58\uc778 <strong>&#8216;\uc131\uc7a5 \uace1\uc120 \ubaa8\ud615(Growth Curve Model)&#8217;<\/strong> \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd88\ub7ec\uc624\uae30:<\/strong> \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc131\ud55c csv \ud30c\uc77c\uc744 jamovi\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5fd\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ubd84\uc11d \uc124\uc815:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dependent Variable:<\/strong> <code>Math_Score<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Factors (Fixed Effects):<\/strong> <code>Time<\/code> (Factor\ub85c \ucde8\uae09\ud558\uac70\ub098 Covariate\ub85c \ucde8\uae09\ud558\uc5ec \uc120\ud615 \uc131\uc7a5 \uac00\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Covariates:<\/strong> <code>Self_Study<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cluster:<\/strong> <code>School_ID<\/code>, <code>Student_ID<\/code> (\ud559\uc0dd\uc774 \ubc18\ubcf5 \uce21\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Random Effects:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>School_ID<\/code> \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 <code>Intercept<\/code>\uc640 <code>Self_Study<\/code> \ucd94\uac00 (\ud559\uad50\ubcc4\ub85c \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ub2e4\ub984\uc744 \ubc18\uc601 ).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>Student_ID<\/code> (within School) \uc124\uc815.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-46\"><strong>\ucc38\uace0:<\/strong> jamovi\uc758 Mixed Model\uc740 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\uac00 &#8216;\ub79c\ub364 \uc6cc\ud06c&#8217;\ub85c \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd(\uc2dd 19.4 <sup><\/sup>)\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\uae30\uc5d4 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uc644\ubcbd\ud788 \uad6c\ud604\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc544\ub798\uc758 R \ucf54\ub4dc(Bayesian)\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 3. R\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615 \ubd84\uc11d (<code>brms<\/code>)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-47\">\ud14d\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\uc870\ud558\ub294 <strong>\ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ucd94\ub860<\/strong> \uc744 \uad6c\ud604\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 R\uc758 <code>brms<\/code> \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 MCMC \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc0ac\ud6c4 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub97c \ucd94\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>R<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc704\ud55c brms \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0 (Stan \uae30\ubc18)\n# install.packages(\"brms\")\nlibrary(brms)\n\n# \ubaa8\ud615 \uc124\uc815:\n# \uc810\uc218 ~ \uc2dc\uac04 + \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\uac04 + (1 + \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\uac04 | \ud559\uad50) + (1 | \ud559\uc0dd)\n# *\uc911\uc694: \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uacc4\uc218\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ud5c8\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc0c1\ud638\uc791\uc6a9\ud56d \ub610\ub294 s() \ud568\uc218 \uc0ac\uc6a9 \uac00\ub2a5\n# \ud14d\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc758 DLM(Dynamic Linear Model)\uc744 \uadfc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uc2dd\n\nmodel_hdm &lt;- brm(\n  formula = Math_Score ~ Time * Self_Study + (1 + Time + Self_Study | School_ID),\n  data = data,\n  family = gaussian(),\n  chains = 2, iter = 2000, # \uc608\uc2dc\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \ubc18\ubcf5 \uc218 \uc904\uc784\n  seed = 2026\n)\n\n# \uacb0\uacfc \uc694\uc57d\nsummary(model_hdm)\n\n# \uc870\uac74\ubd80 \ud6a8\uacfc \uc2dc\uac01\ud654 (\uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ud559\uc2b5 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654)\nconditional_effects(model_hdm, effects = \"Self_Study:Time\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \ubd84\uc11d \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 \ud574\uc11d \ubc0f \uc2dc\uac01\ud654<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(1) \uc2dc\uac04\uacfc \ud559\uad50\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ubcc0\ud654 <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \ud559\uad50\ubcc4 \ud2b9\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>R<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># R\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \uc2dc\uac01\ud654 (\ud559\uad50\ubcc4, \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc131\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654 \uc2a4\ud30c\uac8c\ud2f0 \ud50c\ub86f)\nggplot(data, aes(x = Time, y = Math_Score, group = interaction(School_ID, Student_ID))) +\n  geom_line(alpha = 0.1, color = \"gray\") + # \uac1c\ubcc4 \ud559\uc0dd\n  stat_summary(aes(group = School_ID, color = as.factor(School_ID)), \n               fun = mean, geom = \"line\", size = 1, alpha = 0.8) + # \ud559\uad50 \ud3c9\uade0\n  theme_minimal() +\n  labs(title = \"\ud559\uad50\ubcc4 \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc218\ud559 \uc131\ucde8\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\",\n       x = \"\ud559\uae30 (Time)\", y = \"\uc218\ud559 \uc810\uc218\", color = \"\ud559\uad50 ID\") +\n  theme(legend.position = \"none\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"544\" src=\"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/FIG19.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-877\" srcset=\"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/FIG19.png 720w, http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/FIG19-300x227.png 300w, http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/FIG19-624x471.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-48\">\uc774 \uadf8\ub798\ud504\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud559\uad50\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \uc131\uc801\uc774 \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uac8c \uc624\ub974\uace0(\uae30\uc6b8\uae30\uac00 \ud07c), \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud559\uad50\ub294 \uc815\uccb4\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc774 \ubc14\ub85c <math data-latex=\"\\beta_{0,jt}\"><semantics><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mn>0<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>j<\/mi><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta_{0,jt}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math> (\uc808\ud3b8)\uc640 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\ub4e4\uc774 \ub3d9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc99d\uac70\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(2) \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\uc758 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654 (Smoothed Distribution) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\ubd84\uc11d \uacb0\uacfc, \uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc(<math data-latex=\"\\beta_{1,t}\"><semantics><msub><mi>\u03b2<\/mi><mrow><mn>1<\/mn><mo separator=\"true\">,<\/mo><mi>t<\/mi><\/mrow><\/msub><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">\\beta_{1,t}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\uac00 1\ud559\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 1.5\uc810 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc600\ub294\ub370, 6\ud559\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 2.0\uc810 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub85c \ubcc0\ud588\ub2e4\uba74, \uc774\ub294 &#8220;\uace0\ud559\ub144\uc774 \ub420\uc218\ub85d \uc790\uae30\uc8fc\ub3c4\ud559\uc2b5\uc774 \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4&#8221;\ub294 \uad50\uc721\uc801 \uacb0\ub860\uc744 \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \uc2ec\ud654: \ubaa8\ud615\uc758 \ud655\uc7a5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\uc774 \ubaa8\ud615\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc810\uc218 \ud558\ub098\ub9cc \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ud655\uc7a5\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(1) \ub2e4\ubcc0\ub7c9 \ud655\uc7a5 (Matrix-Variate) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-49\">\uc218\ud559 \uc810\uc218\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c <strong>\uc601\uc5b4 \uc810\uc218<\/strong>\ub3c4 \uac19\uc774 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc2f6\ub2e4\uba74? \uc218\ud559\uacfc \uc601\uc5b4\ub294 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\uac00 \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uac01\uac01 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud589\ub82c(Matrix) \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \ubb36\uc5b4\uc11c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uba74 \ub450 \uacfc\ubaa9 \uac04\uc758 \uc0c1\uad00\uc131\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud30c\uc545\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc815\ud655\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(2) \uacf5\uac04\uc801 \ud655\uc7a5 (Spatial Structure) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-50\">\ud559\uad50\ub4e4\uc740 \uc9c0\ub9ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc811\ud574 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc218\uc6d0\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ud559\uad50\ub4e4\uc740 \uc6a9\uc778\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ud559\uad50\ub4e4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc11c\ub85c \ub354 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uad50\uc721 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uacf5\uc720\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud559\uad50 \uac04\uc758 <strong>&#8216;\uac70\ub9ac(Distance)&#8217;<\/strong> \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ubaa8\ud615\uc758 \ubd84\uc0b0 \ud589\ub82c(<math data-latex=\"V\"><semantics><mi>V<\/mi><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\">V<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math>)\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc5ec, \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ud559\uad50\ub07c\ub9ac \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uac16\ub3c4\ub85d \uc124\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(3) \uc9c0\uc218\uc871 \ubd84\ud3ec \ud655\uc7a5 (Exponential Family) <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"p-rc_0cfefc29c494cabb-51\">\ub9cc\uc57d \uc885\uc18d\ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \uc810\uc218(\uc815\uaddc\ubd84\ud3ec)\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, <strong>&#8216;\uacb0\uc11d \uc77c\uc218(Count)&#8217;<\/strong>\ub098 <strong>&#8216;\ube44\ub9cc \uc5ec\ubd80(Binary)&#8217;<\/strong>\ub77c\uba74 \uc5b4\ub5a8\uae4c\uc694? \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc815\uaddc\ubd84\ud3ec \uac00\uc815\uc774 \uae68\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub54c\ub294 \ud3ec\uc544\uc1a1 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub098 \uac10\ub9c8 \ubd84\ud3ec \ub4f1\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 <strong>\uc77c\ubc18\ud654 \uc120\ud615 \ubaa8\ud615(GLM)<\/strong>\uacfc \uacb0\ud569\ud558\uc5ec \ubd84\uc11d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615\uc740 \uad50\uc721 \ud604\uc7a5\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c <strong>&#8216;\uc788\ub294 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c&#8217;<\/strong> \uac00\uc7a5 \uc798 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud559\uc0dd\uc740 \ud559\uad50\uc5d0 \uc18d\ud574 \uc788\uace0(\uc704\uacc4), \ud559\uad50\uc640 \ud559\uc0dd\uc740 \ub04a\uc784\uc5c6\uc774 \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\uae30(\ub3d9\uc801) \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>jamovi\uc640 R\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc774 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574, \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ud3c9\uade0 \ube44\uad50\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4 <strong>&#8220;\uc5b8\uc81c, \uc5b4\ub514\uc11c, \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uad50\uc721 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\ub294\uc9c0&#8221;<\/strong>\ub97c \ubc1d\ud600\ub0b4\ub294 \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc744 \uac16\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ucc38\uace0\ubb38\ud5cc (APA Style)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gamerman, D., &amp; Migon, H. S. (1993). Dynamic hierarchical models. <em>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)<\/em>, <em>55<\/em>(3), 629-642. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hansen, N. (2009). <em>Models with dynamic coefficients varying in space for data in the exponential family<\/em> [Unpublished master&#8217;s thesis]. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Landim, F. M., &amp; Gamerman, D. (2000). Dynamic hierarchical models: An extension to matrix variate observations. <em>Computational Statistics &amp; Data Analysis<\/em>, <em>35<\/em>(1), 11-42. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paez, M. S., &amp; Gamerman, D. (n.d.). Hierarchical dynamic models. In <em>The SAGE Handbook of Multilevel Modeling<\/em> (Chapter 19, pp. 335-355).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paez, M. S., Gamerman, D., Landim, F. M., &amp; Salazar, E. (2008). Spatially varying dynamic coefficient models. <em>Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference<\/em>, <em>138<\/em>(4), 1038-1058. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>West, M., &amp; Harrison, P. J. (1997). <em>Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models<\/em> (2nd ed.). Springer. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694! \uc624\ub298\uc740 \uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615(Hierarchical Dynamic Models)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \u201c\ud559\uad50 \ud604\uc7a5\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\u201d\ub97c \uc608\uc2dc\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc9c1\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uc124\uba85\uacfc \uc218\ub9ac\uc801 \uc5c4\ubc00\ud568\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450 \uac16\ucd98 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc7ac\uad6c\uc131\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc11d \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c\ub294 jamovi\uc758 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ubc95(GAMLj \ubaa8\ub4c8 \ud65c\uc6a9)\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub418, jamovi\uc758 \uae30\ubc18\uc774 \ub418\ub294 R \ucf54\ub4dc\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc0dd\uc131\ubd80\ud130 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548(Bayesian) \uc811\uadfc\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc815\uad50\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d, \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uac8c \uad6c\ud604\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \uc11c\ub860: \uc0ac\uc9c4\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc601\ud654\ub97c \ucc0d\uc790! <a class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/?p=875\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[399],"tags":[513,145,199,400,514],"class_list":["post-875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-multilevel","tag-hdm","tag-jamovi","tag-r","tag-400","tag-514"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chap19. \uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ub378(Hierarchical Dynamic Models) - WaurimaL<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/waurimal.kr\/?p=875\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chap19. \uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ub378(Hierarchical Dynamic Models) - WaurimaL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694! \uc624\ub298\uc740 \uc704\uacc4\uc801 \ub3d9\uc801 \ubaa8\ud615(Hierarchical Dynamic Models)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \u201c\ud559\uad50 \ud604\uc7a5\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\u201d\ub97c \uc608\uc2dc\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc9c1\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uc124\uba85\uacfc \uc218\ub9ac\uc801 \uc5c4\ubc00\ud568\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450 \uac16\ucd98 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc7ac\uad6c\uc131\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc11d \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c\ub294 jamovi\uc758 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ubc95(GAMLj \ubaa8\ub4c8 \ud65c\uc6a9)\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub418, jamovi\uc758 \uae30\ubc18\uc774 \ub418\ub294 R \ucf54\ub4dc\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc0dd\uc131\ubd80\ud130 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548(Bayesian) \uc811\uadfc\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc815\uad50\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d, \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uac8c \uad6c\ud604\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \uc11c\ub860: \uc0ac\uc9c4\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc601\ud654\ub97c \ucc0d\uc790! 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